Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They're BAAAAACK!

Method:
 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com and from brownsox's summaries.  I only included polls in 2008.
 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 60% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.  

 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 27 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Springsteen tour. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

This time, we look at the Garden State (in need of a new gardener). New Jersey, COME ON DOWN!

Rasmussen. 7/7. MoE 4.5%. (6/4 numbers in parentheses)

Ordinarily, I'd be somewhat concerned about the fact that Lautenberg is under 50%, if just barely; I do think that this is a race to watch, and I'd consider it "Likely Democratic" at this juncture.

I'm a bit less concerned about Lautenberg's top line, however, than one might expect, as New Jersey is famous for being difficult to poll, and its residents have a reputation for disliking, and distrusting, politicians.

Instead, I'm relieved to see Lautenberg with a 13-point lead, compared to a one-point lead last month. That seems to be a pretty good trend, no?

Despite winning four terms, Lautenberg has never won by more than 10 points, or with more than 54%, so I'd still expect this one to be relatively competitive, with perhaps a few polls here and there showing a fairly tight race.

Nevertheless, I'd be awfully surprised if this is the year that New Jersey Republicans end a 36-year U.S. Senate drought.

AUTHORS NOTE: I had written this to post it yesterday afternoon. For some reason, it would not let me publish, saying I had already written a diary (it had been deleted). I chose not to edit it, so some of the references ("today", "yesterday") are a bit off. Apologies...

There was another bevy of polls this week, both on the presidential race and downstream, as well. Unfortunately, I do not have all of them at my disposal, as I put them in a notebook which I cannot, at present, find.

Nevertheless, I do have numbers on 22 separate contests, so let's head past the jump for the numerical goodness, which includes two polls just released in the past few hours!

I know, I know...it's not likely, but a brother can dream can't he?

Following up on my post from yesterday and incorporating some of the suggestions/corrections from the comments made there, let's take a look at our best case scenario in the November Senate elections.

Right now, we're at 49 Ds, 49 Rs and 2 I's.  When the smoke clears on election night in November we'll be at 62 Ds, 37 Rs and 1 I.
Here's how it's going to happen....

A sufficient percentage of the Alabama vote is in that the AP has called:

AL-02 (D) for Bobby Bright. No call on the Republican side.
AL-05 (D) for Parker Griffith. No call on the Republican side.

AL-02 (R) will almost certainly go to a runoff; in the Fifth, it remains to be seen whether Republican Wayne Parker can avoid one.

Turnout numbers indicate that Griffith received more votes than all Republicans put together in the Fifth. Bright did not, in the Second, though he did outpoll each individual Repub.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey:

Senator Frank Lautenberg skated to renomination and hopefully reelection by over 30 points. Congratulations to him. This was not a well-advised primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews, though his wife Camille is now headed to Congress in NJ-01 (although it's likely she'll drop out...for her husband).

Republican Chris Myers is the nominee in the 3rd against Dem John Adler, and here's guessing that he will lose.

Leonard Lance will be the GOP nominee against Linda Stender in the 7th, and he will also have his hands full.

Democrat Dennis Shulman, meanwhile, will be the candidate in the 5th, and has a real shot against GOPer Scott Garrett.

In Iowa's 3rd District, Leonard Boswell has a substantial lead over Ed Fallon, and while the race hasn't been called yet, it's going to be near impossible for Fallon to win.

When results are tabled in California and New Mexico, we will update.

Links:

Alabama House
New Jersey House and Senate
Iowa 3rd

Frank Lautenberg who has represented NJ in great and progressive ways over the past decaded and helped us save the Senate seat for the Democrats when we had our own candidate problems has a primary challenge from Rob Andrews...

I'm headed to a meeting this weekend in Chicago that will last through Tuesday.

On Tuesday here in New Jersey, we have a primary.   I have never missed a vote in my adult life, but I have, over the years, filed lots of absentee ballots.   I voted by absentee ballot today.  I am happy to say that the election of Rush Holt in 2000 - who reportedly lost by a few votes to the Republican creep Dick Zimmer in the 12th New Jersey Congressional district - was finally determined when the absentee ballots were counted.   One of those votes was mine.   In a bitter irony three of the votes I cast were in very close elections - a woman was elected to the town council here by one vote, again mine.   The other close election is the one we have all been bitterly experiencing these 8 years.

For those of you who don't know, Congressman Rob Andrews (NJ1) decided with two days left to file in April to primary Senator Frank Lautenberg for the US Senate seat he holds.  To do so, Andrews had to abandon the reelection campaign for his own House seat, leaving a vacancy on the primary ballot and only two days to fill it.

In New Jersey the party line is very powerful, and in NJ1 the party line is controlled by the bosses.  In order to prevent a fight for the party line which had to be decided soon after the filing, Andrews and the party bosses decided to place Camile Andrews, the Congressman's wife, on the ballot.

However, they would only do so it she promised not to accept the nomination, which results in a meeting of the 600 or so Democratic county committee members to give the nomination to someone else.  Essentially, they decided to block the primary voters from selecting their nominee and instead give that power to the party.

So with less than half a year to go, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

It's been five LOOOONG months since I last posted a Senate '08 diary. Back then, Fidel Castro still ran Cuba (in name, at least) and Iowa was anyone's game to predict. Two weeks before my diary was posted, a loon held Clinton's Rochester, New Hampshire office hostage for several hours. And about the time my diary was posted, the hottest news on Campaign Trail '08 was Sex On the City (if you don't remember, it's okay...it was Rudy Giuliani's 497th scandal of 2007).

Anyway, much has changed, and the Senate '08 picture has seemingly gotten brighter and brighter for the Democrats. Retaining a Senate majority seems just about assured, and expanding it significantly looks likely. That's what a basket-case economy and unanimously disdained President will do for the opposition party. Good times.

My Senate roundup below the fold! . . .

NM-Sen: As mcjoan wrote earlier, Democrat Tom Udall is kicking all kinds of ass in the Senate race. He has a monster lead, 25+ points, over both his Republican opponents, Heather "Nipplegate" Wilson and Steve Pearce.

Udall started the race with a wide lead, and as the race has carried on, it has only expanded. Pearce, and especially Wilson, were considered formidable opponents before the race began, but it is currently looking like a potential blowout reminiscent of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar's crushing victory over Mark Kennedy in 2006.

Best of all, Pearce leads Wilson in the GOP primary. Pearce is the further-right candidate, so he cedes "moderate" ground to Udall. It's a bad break for Wilson, but look on the bright side; she'll have plenty of time to devote to keeping the airwaves safe from loose nipples.

ME-Sen: More splendid news; Democratic Rep. Tom Allen is slowly, but surely closing the gap in his Senate race against Susan Collins. The latest Rasmussen numbers:

Rasmussen. April numbers in parentheses.

Collins is one of the most popular Senators in the country, due to her "moderate" image. She represents the only hope for GOP candidates in the fall; to win by distancing themselves as much as possible from the national party. And even so, Allen is steadily gaining on her, and is within 10 points with plenty of race to go.

Say it with me; everything's coming up Democrat!

KS-Sen: And now for the most shocking poll of all, another Rasmussen poll: Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts leads Democratic challenger Jim Slattery by only 12 points. This is in a state where no Democrat has been elected to the Senate since (wait for it) 1932, and against a challenger who hasn't run for office since 1994.

Rasmussen. 5/13. MoE +/- 4%

There's a long way to go before November, and Slattery's already competitive. Having entered the race late, Slattery has yet to begin campaigning in earnest, though his fundraising is going very well. Roberts enjoys 60% approval according to the Rasmussen poll, and yet manages just 52% against Slattery.

These Rasmussen polls are just shocking.

WA-Gov: Rasmussen has one last piece of beautiful news: Washington's Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire, who won a narrow (and hotly contested) victory over Republican Dino Rossi in 2004, has opened up a double-digit lead in their rematch:

Rasmussen.5/12. MoE +/- 4%. 3/27 numbers in parentheses.

That lead has gone from one point to 11 points in less than two months. Obama also enjoys a double-digit lead over McCain in the state.

NJ-Sen: Rep. Rob Andrews stands alone among New Jersey's Democratic establishment in thinking he'd make a better senator than incumbent Frank R. Lautenberg.

Andrews' colleague Frank Pallone has some particularly harsh words for him:

Seven members of Congress and the mayor of Trenton spoke at the press conference at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) headquarters, reaffirming their support for Lautenberg and repeating charges that Andrews touts the GOP line and therefore, is wrong for New Jersey.

"On too many occasions he (Andrews) sided with Bush and the Republicans," Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. of the 6th District said, later adding that he "often wondered" that if New Jersey didn’t lean Democratic, whether Andrews would change his party affiliation.

Meanwhile, Lautenberg's colleague Robert Menendez has the highest praise for him:

Menendez said Lautenberg has "taken on" special interests, opposed the war in Iraq, and voted in support of his own beliefs even when they weren’t politically popular.

"New Jersey needs a proven, effective progressive Democrat who consistently stands up to the Bush Republicans," Menendez said. "That Senator is Frank Lautenberg."

Here's a note to Andrews; it is pure folly to try and wage a primary challenge from the right, in a blue state, during a year which marks a Democratic ascendancy as this one does.

House Races

TN-09: Things look very bright for progressive Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen, as he has a 52-point lead over primary challenger Nikki Tinker.

Seems like there's something to be said for going to Washington and doing right by your district. Who knew?

KS-02: More primary polling here, as Republican Jim Ryun, legendary track star and former right-wing Representative, faces off against the moderate GOP candidate, former Kansas Treasurer Leeroy Lynn Jenkins.

Ryun not only has a huge 44-point lead, but his lead has actually expanded in the last year, despite Jenkins being fairly well-known in the district. I guess Jenkins is trying to keep her powder dry, but it may be time for her to start trying to take down Ryun.

Because incumbent Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda defeated Ryun once already, and because Ryun, as the far-right candidate, presents the starkest contrast between himself and Boyda, I think it's probably best for us that Ryun win this primary. This is a tough district and Boyda will have a fight on her hands either way, but I certainly won't cry if Ryun emerges as the candidate.

KS-04: Alex Parker of the MTV Street Team has put together a nifty video featuring 30-year-old State Senator Donald Betts, now running for the U.S. House against incumbent Todd Tiahrt. Check it out.

As a state senator, Betts already has a considerable base of political support in Wichita. It's a decidedly uphill race for Betts against Tiahrt in a strongly Republican district, but the race is not hopeless; both Governor Kathleen Sebelius and former Democratic Attorney General Paul Morrison won the district in 2006.

IN-02: Businessman Luke Puckett, though backed by the NRCC, had quite a bit of trouble winning his primary...against a man who spoke at a neo-Nazi meeting earlier this year.

'04/'06 candidate Tony Zirkle (R) said he's "willing to talk to any group that invites him," and that's why he spoke to a weekend gathering in Chicago of the Amer. National Socialist Workers Party. The "occasion was a celebration" of the 119th anniversary of the birth of Adolf Hitler. Zirkle stood at a podium "in front of a larger-than-life portrait" of Hitler, "flanked" by an American flag and a Nazi flag.

During a 4/21 presser, Zirkle said he accepted the invitation to "spread his anti-pornography message." He said he's "misunderstood," and that his "real mission" is to "rid the country of pornography." To "punctuate his message," Zirkle "shredded an original copy" of a '69 Penthouse magazine.

But an "account of the gathering" says "Zirkle spoke on his history" as a state's atty in IN, "prosecuting Jewish and Zionist criminal gangs involved in trafficking prostitutes and pornography" from Russia.

Puckett lost to this Zirkle fellow in 5 of the district's 12 counties. Anyone want to take bets on how he performs against Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly?

"IF OBAMA GETS ELECTED, WHO WILL STAND UP TO HIM?" Please make the jump and REC THIS THREAD to help defend this latest smear campaign attempt against Obama in blue-state New Jersey.

So I returned home yesterday to Southern New Jersey, and prepared to get into the primary for the NJ Senate seat.

In Garden State politics, much like the world of fashion, one day you are in, and the next day you are out:

Despite being poised to enter the Republican Senate primary race for the second time in two weeks, Princeton biotech executive John Crowley once again withdrew his name from consideration today.

"John was deeply impressed with the outpouring of support for his potential candidacy for the US Senate. Many people both locally here in New Jersey and nationally had been encouraging him to run over the past week, but given his tremendous level of responsibility to his family, his company and to the US Navy, he’s decided not to enter the US Senate race this year," said Crowley’s friend and advisor, Bill Spadea. "I know there was a lot of legitimate anticipation that John would enter this race we’ve been upfront with the many obligations he has, and his decision had to come down to his family."

There were other considerations as well, like Crowley’s role as CEO of Amicus Therapeutics and whether he would be able to disentangle himself from company affairs soon enough to declare a candidacy.

Seriously, how much did they like Crowley? This much:

Mr. Crowley, who turns 41 on Monday, first said no weeks ago to a possible Senate run. But after fielding calls from Senator John McCain of Arizona and other prominent Republicans in recent days, he reconsidered. And several Republicans who had talked to Mr. Crowley lately said he was setting up the machinery to run, with supporters even contacting the media to arrange interviews....

For Republicans, [] Mr. Crowley had been an especially attractive candidate — even though most conceded that they did not know where Mr. Crowley, a Navy reservist with a law degree from Notre Dame and a business degree from Harvard, stood on key issues, like the war in Iraq, the economy and abortion rights.

With their (second) dream candidate out of the race, the GOP field is left with NYC resident and party animal Andy Unanue (who almost was out but now may stay in), Paulite nutter Murray Sabrin and "nationalist" nutter "Jersey Joe" Pennacchio, perhaps the weirdest dentist in American public life since Dr. Orin Scrivello, D.D.S., who has called for the homeless to be interned on former military bases.

So the next time you're fretting about the developing North/South Jersey civil war on the Democratic side, just remember: compared to what NJ Republicans are facing, we've got it easy.

The GOP's only credible candidate, biotech executive John Crowley, has dropped out of the running for the NJ Senate one day after signaling he was in it.  The deadline is tomorrow, and the republicans have only fringe candiates at this point.  This is really good news because the NJ senate race has had me worried.  

link

I couldn't find this diaried, so let me know if I missed one and I'll delete this.

Looks like the excitement in the Republican camp for their top tier recruit in New Jersey was a little premature:

From the New York Times:

After listening to requests over the last few days from Senator John McCain of Arizona and other prominent Republicans, John F. Crowley, a biotechnology executive from Princeton, N.J., announced Sunday that he would not enter the New Jersey Republican primary for United States Senate.