Democrats are stoked for their convention where Barack Obama will be our nominee.  There are some folks who are angry about Democrats' Iraq impotence, Clinton's loss or other issues, but for the most part Democrats from around the country are excited.  Barack Obama moved his acceptance to the Denver Bronco's stadium that will likely have fewer empty seats than if John Elway made a comeback.  It looks to be a huge party, and an energizing one that will launch the fall campaign like few others have.

Then there's the Republican convention in Minneapolis St. Paul, where John McCain becomes their standard bearer.  Apparently enthusiasm is lacking not just among rank and file, but among leadership.  Here's Tom Cole, head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, giving advice to candidates:

The NRCC chief discouraged candidates from attending the national convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, saying that spending days there would be a "waste of time," and they would be better off campaigning.

I haven't seen this diaried yet so I'll throw it up for its comedy. The National Republican Committee Chair Tom Cole has told GOP congressional members to fend for themselves, skip the GOP convention in Minnesota, attack the GOP if you have to, attack your fellow Republican congressional members, whatever it takes.

New numbers coming in:

With Obama now firmly in charge of the DNC, and directing his big-dollar donors in its direction, the DNC is finally competitive with the RNC. Combined, the Obama/DNC combo is now near parity with the McCain/RNC pairing. That didn't take long to close the gap. This month, the GOP gets left in the dust, and given that their current heavy spending isn't making much of a difference, that truly is a whiff of desperation you're smelling from the McCain camp.

Meanwhile, our two party committees are crushing their counterparts. The NRCC, in particular, is in woeful straits, and won't be in any position to provide its members or candidates any help whatsoever. Remember -- this is the month that included their big annual Bush fundraiser. They ain't got any more of those on tap.

The NRSC on the other hand has got enough money to play some respectable defense, though little more. The NRCC can't even offer that. But across the board, Democrats will be on the attack this November, with little Republicans can do except fill up some sandbags and hope the rising waters don't crest.

It appears as though OH-7 Republican Steve Austria didn't get the memo as today he is having NRCC Chairman, Tom Cole come in to campaign with him.  Someone may want to clue Steve in that Cole hasn't really been bringing the magic to his candidates.

Sharen Neuhardt's campaign took this as an opportunity to point out that today is the kick-off of Austria's "Failed Policies, Failed Politics" campaign.

Here is a quip from Neuhardt campaign manager, Jim Alexee:

Inspiring words from the NRCC:

Speaking privately, numerous Republicans have long conceded they are well on their way to additional, possibly significant losses in November, given President Bush's low approval ratings, opposition to the war in Iraq and polls that show a large majority of Americans wanting change.

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the NRCC, reacted to the private report by acknowledging the difficulties confronting her party.

"This is a challenging environment," she said. "Any Republican running for office has to run basically on an independent platform, localize the race and not take anything for granted. There are no safe Republican seats in this election."

I wonder how their prospective donors feel about this wave of optimism for the November elections.

I wonder how their candidates feel, being told that they have to run away from the national party in order to have a shot at winning.

Meanwhile, the boys in blue are flying high:

The DCCC has reserved $2.1 million for advertising for a seat in New York City in which Republican Rep. Vito Fossella intends to retire. Fossella, who is married with children, recently acknowledged fathering a child out of wedlock.

Democrats also said they will spend $1.2 million in the Portland, Ore., area, hoping to hold the seat of Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley, who is retiring.

The third target is the seat held by Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, where Democrats said they had reserved nearly $700,000 in advertising time.

The GOP doesn't even have a candidate in NY-13. Anyone they might ask to run, at this point, not only has to face a top-shelf Democratic recruit in Mike McMahon, but a $2.1 million Democratic ad buy.

Good luck with that.

Stealing these from Singer, in millions:

Yowza! The RNC (and Bush) can sure raise money. If this was 2006, Republicans would be looking at near parity, given their ability to continue raking in those $28,500 contributions to the national parties (times two, including spouses). And if this was 2006, that RNC money could be used to bail out the weak-performing NRCC and NRSC and their crucial portfolio of congressional races.

But alas, this is not 2006, and the RNC's money advantage will need to be used to bail out McCain.

McCain got some heavy duty fundraising assistance from Bush, who of course skulked around in the darkness lest his stench further damage his party's nominee. McCain was also helped by lower spending, as Obama was still fighting hard in May to wrap up the nomination while McCain was fighting to put together his "green screen" speech at that half-empty senior center outside of New Orleans. Guess which one was the lower-budget production?

But the reality is that if you add up the money which will be earmarked for the presidential race -- the presidential candidates and their national party committee, we get this:

Things may look splendid at the congressional level, but we have a huge gap to make up to ensure Obama and the DNC are financially competitive this fall.

In other words, no complacency.

Give to Obama (and our endorsed candidates) at the Orange to Blue ActBlue fundraising page.

Voter suppression is real. It takes more money to turnout Democratic voters than it does for the Republicans to turn out theirs. (Ours are more likely to not vote because of voter suppression. Ours are more likely to need rides to the polls. Etc.)

Compared to the reach of insidious chain emails and the MSM, the reach of the progressive blogosphere, while growing, is small. To expand the reach of the progressive community, you need to communicate with friends, family and your community, particularly in swing states. Remember that not everyone has the internet, and amongst those who do, many do not use the internet like you do. Many use it only for email and news.  I attended an event recently where Peter Daou spoke, and he talked about some of Clinton’s donors who used a credit card online for the first time when they donated to her. Neither of my parents have ever read a political blog. They use it for some news, email and keeping tabs on their stocks.  

Quite frankly, Obama and progressives everywhere need to expand the reach of our message and donor base beyond the folks who use the internet the way you use it.

This causes me to smile:

WASHINGTON - House rank and file Republicans are tens of millions of dollars short of meeting fundraising targets set by their own campaign committee in advance of this fall's elections, according to figures circulating among the leadership, heightening concerns inside the party about major losses in November.

Heck it's probably been diaried, but it just makes me happy and I want to share the love.

Oh how it buoys my spirit

The Republican Party, which paints itself as being competent in managing money, was a 'victim" of embezzlement by the former treasurer of the RCCC.  Although the party investigated Christopher Ward and determined that he pocketed nearly $750,000 in RCCC funds, no criminal complaint has been made and Ward has yet to be charged with any crime.

According to the New York Times, Ward earned $120,000 as RCCC treasurer, overseeing $360 million in donations. Ward also was compensated an additional $10,000 as treasurer for the President'sDinner Committee, the GOP largest annual fund-raiser, wrote reporter Leslie Wayne yesterday.

House Republicans have had to deal with the nearly $2 million tab from its embezzlement scandal ($725,000 stolen by their former treasurer, and continued legal and accounting costs trying to sort out the mess), not to mention the severe public embarrassment which allows people like me to say, "Republicans run their committees the same way they run the country."

But there's another major side-effect of the scandal, as noted by the subscription-only Roll Call:

The committee will need to hire an outside firm to conduct a standard audit of its books for 2007, and until that audit is complete, the NRCC will not be able to take out any bank loans to fund independent expenditure campaigns in late-breaking races [...]

The ability to obtain a line of credit, while standard practice for a national party committee, could be particularly important for the NRCC this fall. The committee had $6.7 million in cash on hand as of April 30 and has 30 open seats to defend and several incumbents being threatened by the cash-flush Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The DCCC closed April with more than $45 million in the bank.

The audit is only expected to last six weeks once begun (they haven't yet), but NRCC chair doesn't sound too confident about the matter.

When asked if the NRCC would be in a position to borrow money from a bank this fall, committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) said: "I think so, but we’ll just have to now work that through."

Christopher Ward, once the highly respected former treasurer for the National Republican Congressional Committee, allegedly improperly diverted more than $500,000 in GOP campaign donations during a four-year period from 2003 to 2007, according to documents unveiled by the Justice Dept. on Friday.

Well I must say I'm shocked. A crook in the GOP? Unpossible!

No charges have been filed against Ward yet, but DOJ has placed a lien on his Bethesda, Md., home, stating that the funds he took were used to pay his mortgage for several years, as well as cover the cost of a $200,000 home renovation.

I guess the NRCC will have some money to pay for those attack ads after all. If they can sell this guy's house in today's market, that is...

Full Story at http://news.yahoo.com/...

The beleaguered committee has few options at this point. Broke and on a vicious losing streak, it can't get rid of its chair, Tom Cole, since no one else would want the thankless and impossible job. So they're making mostly cosmetic changes, except for one relatively important one:

The NRCC will now wade into competitive GOP primaries when appropriate. This is a significant shift, as Cole's policy has been to stay out of such contests even when the party believes one candidate would clearly be the best general election bet. In Illinois and Louisiana in particular, Republicans suffered because they fielded a poor nominee. The race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in New York, which could draw several GOP contenders, could be the first high-profile test of the new policy.

23 states still have congressional primaries on the calendar. Some of these could end up pitting the NRCC against Club for Growth and conservative grassroots groups. At a time when the GOP is riveted by dissension in its ranks, this can hardly help.

But really, they have no option. The wingnuts the CfG and other allied groups are serving up are unelectable even in solidly conservative districts. While the (R) next to their names were good for victory in most years, this year, that letter isn't giving them much of an advantage.

Meanwhile, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is trying to dampen Democratic expectations.

"We must not allow our funding lead over the NRCC, our early preparation, our successful recruiting efforts, and most importantly, our special election wins to lull us into a false sense of complacency," Van Hollen writes. "Historically, following a wave election like 2006, the majority party loses seats. We can beat history, but only if we maintain our political momentum, ensure we have the resources to win, and stay focused on our agenda of change."

Van Hollen argues that Democrats will have more than 75 seats in play, including more than 50 GOP-held seats. You can read the full memo here (PDF).

Okay, so I want to give props to the NRCC for admitting they have a problem:

"Clearly, we have got problems that are deep and serious in terms of how we are going to do in the fall elections," [Tom] Cole said.

That's progress. But then we hit the snag, as Cole further explains what those "problems" are:

"Having said that... we haven't lost as a party because of the ideological agenda on the other side. The obvious challenge we face is we had somebody running as a Republican, pro-life, pro-gun, who wants to cut taxes, wants to control spending. That's not particularly in step with where the Democratic majority is. So, that is going to create some opportunities for us. I think those issues clarify and reinforce [our agenda]."

First of all, does Cole really think that wanting to "control spending" is a Republican trait? If so, how come Bill Clinton balanced the budget while Mr. 27% and his Republican Congress has given us record deficits?

Nope, balancing the budget is definitely not a Republican trait. It's a Democratic one.

Second of all, guns are no longer a Republican issue. The NRA won. Democrats have given up on guns and have moved on. I know Republicans don't want to acknowledge that victory because it strips them of a once-useful wedge, but really, when you have Clinton and Obama fighting over who is more pro-gun, you know we've moved on.

So what's left? "Cut taxes"? Sure, everyone wants to cut taxes. The question is who gets those cuts and who shoulders the heavier tax burden. Republicans think oil companies need tax breaks, Democrats think lower and middle class families deserve them.

So that leaves abortion. And yes, on that issue, the two victorious Democrats in Louisiana (Don Cayazoux) and Mississippi (Travis Childers) actually buck their party. I'll add another one that Cole ignored -- immigration. On the border issue, these guys are downright regressive.

But that doesn't make them Republicans. Because if it does, then these positions shared by Cayazoux and Childers are now Republican positions:

• End the war in Iraq (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Stop new free trade deals (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Support SCHIP (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Eliminate subsidies to big oil (Childers)
• Protect social security (Cazayoux, Childers)
• Improve educational opportunities (Cazayoux, Childers)

This was the same lame spin that Republicans used to try and rationalize Jim Webb's victory in Virginia in 2006, before quickly dropping that approach as Webb's economic populism took center stage. Cazayoux and Childers appear to be economix populists in the Jim Webb mold.

What infuriates Republicans to no end is that these two Democrats effectively nullified GOP efforts to run on their pet social issues. Decades of winning elections on the abortion issue hasn't made abortion illegal in the country, nor has decades of anti-gay hysteria stopped the growing spread of tolerance, fairness, and equality. Heck, I doubt Republicans want to win those issues, given how quickly they're losing guns as a wedge issue now that they've won that battle.

With those social issues off the table, what's left? The kind of stuff that truly can make a material impact on people's lives -- health care, education, jobs, social security, and Iraq.

And no matter how much Republicans try to counter with the usual boogeymen (which now includes Obama, Wright, Pelosi and Kerry), it's not working. Democrats have clear advantages on bread and butter issues as well as the war in Iraq, even in the reddest of districts.

That's why Cazayoux ad Childers won. Not because they ran as Republicans, but because they ran on Democratic issues after taking the usual Republican wedge issues off the table.

So I was reading an article in TheHill.com, ostensibly about Rahm Emmanuel crashing Republican meetings, and continued on page two, reading about power struggles in the NRCC occasioned by their recent disaster in Mississippi.  I began to wonder if some Republicans aren't catching on.  From the once and future chairman of the NRCC, Tom Davis (R., VA):

Davis called for shifts on healthcare ("the weakest issue for Republicans") and immigration: "John McCain, being from a border state, may be out of sync with many Republicans but he has standing among Hispanics. Barack Obama has not made the sale to Hispanic voters. Thus this issue is a tar baby for anyone who touches it, with land mines everywhere. But the Democrats control Congress and are doing nothing. This needs to be highlighted. Put the onus on them to produce a bill. Put them on defense."

Hmmm, this guy Tom Davis is practically conceding Health Care and Immigration, which is smart because they will sink with those cement overshoes.  This guy sounds reasonable.  Perhaps he's too smart?  And he's identified a weakness in the Democratic...

... wait a minute... hold on...

Credit for this goes to Eric Kleefield over at TPM.

By now we all know about the thumping that Travis Childers gave to Greg Davis in MS-01, a very conserative district that has a PVI rating of R+10.  The NRCC funneled *$1.2 million*, while the shadowy Freedom's Watch threw in an estimated $400k and Greg Davis  himself used almost $1 million.  

The Republicans' entire strategy was to tie Childers with the "librul" Democratic establishment and they even used race-baiting guilt-by-association-by-association Rev. Wright smears.

How well did it work?  Childers improved 3 pt. victory (in the first special election) to an 8 pt. thrashing in last night's runoff.  Great news, huh?  Think it can't get any better?

Think again.

After last night's hulmiliating defeat in the MS-01 Congressional District, NRCC Chairman Tom Cole has put up the white flag and thrown every Republican candidate for Congress under the bus. His message to them is simply "you are on your own".

After Travis Childers beat out Gooper Greg Davis in MS-01, a Seat that was part of Newt's victories from way back in 1994, a seat that went +62 for Bush, by 6%, the NRCC today is essentially in meltdown mode. Let's examine the carnage.  First up, Tom Cole's pathetic statement:

“I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election.”

1. Communicate: Voters aren't listening to the crap we're selling... need new message... Try "Change"

2. Energize:  They're sleeping, and who can blame them, the country is fucked, but you gotta scare them silly

3. Turn Out Voters: Find ways to surpress the turn out the Dems are enjoying... Great job Indiana and Missouri

It's priceless how the rest of the press is quite aware of just how bad it's getting for the NRCC.

No matter whom one backs in the Democratic primary, tonight was a great night for the Democratic party. With wins in MS-01 and in the NE-SEN primary, we all have reason to celebrate no matter whom your candidate was in West Virgina.

One thing we should all be happy about is how aggressive the DCCC has become in the last few months. Heck maybe the last few years! Back in the day they would not have touched a race like MS-01, yet alone the race in Louisiana.  Matter of fact they usually picked a few incumbents to defend and that would be the end of it. Not any more. They have the cash to take the fight to the gop and they are using it.